By Venkataraghavn Srinivasan
Walk down C. V. Raman Salai in Alwarpet on any given morning and the political arithmetic of Mylapore constituency becomes visible in the housing itself – gated apartment complexes and independent bungalows whose residents voted for the BJP at a remarkable 81.7% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Travel six kilometres south-east to the narrow lanes of Dooming Kuppam on the San Thome coast, and the number flips with equal conviction: over 74% for the DMK, booth after booth, with the BJP an afterthought in the single digits.
Mylapore is a constituency of two cities occupying the same postal code. A granular analysis of official 2024 booth wise voting data – covering all 262 polling stations and 1,36,759 votes cast – lays bare a political geography of stark contrasts, and raises one critical question for 2026: can a BJP-AIADMK alliance, now formalised under the National Democratic Alliance banner, stitch together enough of the anti-DMK vote to actually win?
The data says: possibly – but only if the votes actually transfer.
2024 Lok Sabha election votes >> DMK – 47.4% votes. 28.1% – BJP 15.5 – AIADMK
BJP in 2024
The BJP’s 2024 performance in Mylapore was not so much an election result as a demographic expression. In booth after booth covering the upscale residential belt – Alwarpet, Abiramapuram, Luz Church Road, Warren Road, R.A. Puram, R.A. Puram, and the Mylapore temple corridor – the party swept votes
Booth 42, covering the C.V. Raman Salai and Desika Road apartment clusters in Alwarpet, recorded an 81.7% BJP vote – the highest in the constituency. Close behind: Abiramapuram 4th Street at 79.2%, Luz Church Road at 76.3%,
In these neighbourhoods, the DMK vote barely scraped 12–18%, and the AIADMK had essentially no presence.
DMK in fisher areas in 2024
If the BJP’s Mylapore is defined by apartment towers and car parks, the DMK’s Mylapore is defined by the sea. The fishing settlements of Dooming Kuppam and the San Thome coastline – some of Chennai’s oldest and most densely settled communities – delivered some of the most lopsided results in the entire constituency.
Booths 163, 165, 166 and 164, all covering sections of Doomingkuppam’s TNSCB blocks, produced DMK votes of 77.4%, 74.0%, 74.2% and 70.9% respectively.
But over the recent years, the fishers community here has been put off with Chennai Corporation action of clearing off women fish hawkers from the Loop Road, the ‘flop’ business in newly-constructed fish market and Blue Flag beach plans that propose to cover the sands off this road and will need fishers to shift some boats/gear/nets. The DMK sitting MLA seeking re-election, has faced severe criticism and challenges. Will the hardcore pro-DMK voters opt for another symbol? If this mood swings hard, DMK loses its big vote bank.
AIADMK votes scattered
The AIADMK vote is scattered in dribs and drabs across 262 booths rather than concentrated into decisive clusters. This has a double implication for 2026: on one hand, it means AIADMK’s votes, if transferred, would incrementally boost NDA across a wide swathe of booths rather than producing dramatic local reversals.
If every vote cast for BJP and AIADMK in 2024 is counted jointly as an NDA vote in 2026 – a pure paper addition – the result is this: NDA gets – 43.6%. DMK alliance – 47.4%
In the event that the alliance does achieve strong vote transfer, the decisive battle ground will not be Alwarpet or Doomingkuppam – those outcomes are already written. The fight will happen in 41 swing booths: mixed-income, mixed-community neighbourhoods where DMK won narrowly in 2024 and NDA, theoretically, leads in 2026.
Booths 188, 195, 197 (Mandaveli periphery), Booths 39 and 12 (Teynampet-adjacent), and Booth 49 (a 678-voter booth where the margins are within 6%) are the places political managers on both sides will be counting votes on results night.
Verdict: Competitive, not Decided
What the 2024 booth wise data establishes, unambiguously, is that Mylapore is no longer a safe seat for anyone – it is a constituency in genuine contention, whose outcome in 2026 will be determined by human factors that no spreadsheet can model.
The DMK enters the cycle with the largest vote share, the deepest geographic spread, and the most reliable fortress booths. The NDA enters with a newly combined vote base that, on paper, closes the gap to under 4 percentage points.
But Indian elections – and Tamil Nadu elections especially – are not decided on paper. They are decided on whether a fisherman in Dooming Kuppam is moved enough to turn out, whether an apartment-dweller in Alwarpet trusts the alliance candidate, and whether an AIADMK loyalist in Thiruvalluvar Salai decides to follow the party flag into unfamiliar political territory.
The bigger question is to examine the influence of the new “Vijay Factor”, will that be aiding the incumbent or end up being the disruptor?
The key question – the question of transfer – is the only one that matters in Mylapore in 2026. And it is the one question the data cannot answer.
<< This article is a data-driven analysis for electoral research and informational purposes. It does not constitute an election forecast, endorsement of any party or candidate, or exit poll.
(( )) Venkataraghavan Srinivasan, an inveterate data junkie, is a resident of R A Puram, and works as an AI engineer with a big tech
